FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

325.29 – 384.31

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

291 – 239

Prediction missed · off by 89.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.8 ±9.8

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 97.05Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 97.4Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 130.84Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.2 ±9.8

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 109.39Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 63.02Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 211.9Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5843, 8397, 2960

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5843, 8397, 2960

Auto

60.6 19%

Teleop

166.9 52%

Endgame

94.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3322, 1711, 7166

/ 100 compat

Projected

384.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3322, 1711, 7166

Auto

94.4 25%

Teleop

193.1 51%

Endgame

94.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.8 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score325.3pts

Blue projected score384.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59
Score range: 262–447
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 530 vs event baseline 351.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.8Season APEX508.2

60.6Auto94.4

166.9Teleop193.1

94.5Endgame94.4

147Consistency209

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	54
teleop	133	147
endgame	49	33
foul	30	5
total	291	239

Result

Final score

291 – 239

Prediction missed · off by 89.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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