FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

397.61 – 308.19

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

353 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 74.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529.9 ±9.8

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 146.79Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 121.6Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 129.22Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.6 ±9.8

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 101.82Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 93.04Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 113.33Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2851, 4779, 894

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2851, 4779, 894

Auto

55.9 14%

Teleop

247.3 63%

Endgame

92.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 288, 6637, 70

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 288, 6637, 70

Auto

60.9 20%

Teleop

179.8 60%

Endgame

57.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.63 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score397.6pts

Blue projected score308.2pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.4
Score range: 244–462
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 556 vs event baseline 353.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529.9Season APEX483.6

55.9Auto60.9

247.3Teleop179.8

92Endgame57.4

216Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	45
teleop	162	132
endgame	139	26
foul	15	0
total	353	203

Result

Final score

353 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 74.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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