FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

383.24 – 285.99

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 590.6 ±9.3

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 178.1Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 169.7Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 35.44Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 473.7 ±9.8

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 81.44Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 88.95Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 115.6Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5066, 33, 4956

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5066, 33, 4956

Auto

65.4 17%

Teleop

222.4 58%

Endgame

92.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7054, 818, 4392

/ 100 compat

Projected

286 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7054, 818, 4392

Auto

61.6 22%

Teleop

149.2 53%

Endgame

72.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.65 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score383.2pts

Blue projected score286pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.3
Score range: 222–447
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 584 vs event baseline 357.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

590.6Season APEX473.7

65.4Auto61.6

222.4Teleop149.2

92.7Endgame72.4

158Consistency190

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	42
teleop	182	175
endgame	94	54
foul	5	0
total	313	271

Result

Final score

313 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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