FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

424.34 – 384.4

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

321 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 94.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 662.5 ±9.3

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 98.89Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 182.08Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 143.37Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 598.6 ±9.3

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 64.05Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 170.82Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 149.53Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4392, 548, 6152

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4392, 548, 6152

Auto

86.0 21%

Teleop

203.6 49%

Endgame

127.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1718, 5712, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

384.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1718, 5712, 68

Auto

45.5 12%

Teleop

221.5 57%

Endgame

119.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.46 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score424.3pts

Blue projected score384.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.9
Score range: 320–488
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 620 vs event baseline 355.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

662.5Season APEX598.6

86Auto45.5

203.6Teleop221.5

127.3Endgame119.4

213Consistency207

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	53
teleop	187	174
endgame	116	72
foul	0	0
total	321	299

Result

Final score

321 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 94.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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