FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

251.93 – 253.28

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

316 – 450

Prediction correct · off by 130.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.6 ±9.8

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 74.65Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 110.86Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 66.42Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 552.9 ±9.3

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 164Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 103.45Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX -14.17Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8397, 3322, 818

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8397, 3322, 818

Auto

50.7 20%

Teleop

140.7 57%

Endgame

56.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2137, 8280, 4956

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2137, 8280, 4956

Auto

60.2 24%

Teleop

165.4 65%

Endgame

28.9 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.05 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score251.9pts

Blue projected score253.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 79%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.3
Score range: 188–317
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 766 vs event baseline 353.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.6Season APEX552.9

50.7Auto60.2

140.7Teleop165.4

56.6Endgame28.9

227Consistency221

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	64
teleop	147	250
endgame	89	136
foul	15	0
total	316	450

Result

Final score

316 – 450

Prediction correct · off by 130.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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