FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

346.68 – 254.75

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

438 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 103.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 669.1 ±9.3

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 153.95Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 114.82Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 77.91Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.8 ±9.8

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 65.83Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 84.2Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 104.72Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 548, 4391, 5843

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.7 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 548, 4391, 5843

Auto

82.6 24%

Teleop

158.3 45%

Endgame

108.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4967, 4392, 894

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4967, 4392, 894

Auto

70.9 27%

Teleop

138.0 53%

Endgame

50.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.69 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score346.7pts

Blue projected score254.8pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.9
Score range: 191–411
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 809 vs event baseline 356.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

669.1Season APEX435.8

82.6Auto70.9

158.3Teleop138

108.4Endgame50.5

250Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	48
teleop	255	195
endgame	91	128
foul	0	0
total	438	371

Result

Final score

438 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 103.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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