FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

369.28 – 263.87

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

427 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.7 ±9.8

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 48.97Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 155.18Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 165.13Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.6 ±10.4

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 96.51Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 68.18Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 99.18Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6637, 7056, 8373

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.3 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6637, 7056, 8373

Auto

38.3 11%

Teleop

219.6 61%

Endgame

101.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4779, 8397, 7054

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4779, 8397, 7054

Auto

54.7 20%

Teleop

174.5 64%

Endgame

43.3 16%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.78 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score369.3pts

Blue projected score263.9pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 80%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.4
Score range: 201–432
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 704 vs event baseline 350.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.7Season APEX393.6

38.3Auto54.7

219.6Teleop174.5

101.2Endgame43.3

147Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	35
teleop	288	151
endgame	103	86
foul	0	5
total	427	277

Result

Final score

427 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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