Qualification · Qualification 20
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
226.43 – 202.28
57%43%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
239 – 307
Prediction missed · off by 58.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.4 ±10.4
Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 102.35Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 37.61Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 86.47Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 498.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 68.15Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 51.65Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 82.48Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 288, 7188, 1711
51
/ 100 compatProjected
226.4 pts
~2.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 288, 7188, 1711
Auto
25.4 11%
Teleop
143.5 62%
Endgame
61.9 27%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 32%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4810, 818, 8280
51
/ 100 compatProjected
202.3 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4810, 818, 8280
Auto
31.8 16%
Teleop
115.4 58%
Endgame
50.9 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 32%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.8
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score226.4pts
Blue projected score202.3pts
Red win probability57%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 70%, blue 69%
Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 23%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 24.2
- Score range
- 138–290
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
378.4Season APEX498.2
25.4Auto31.8
143.5Teleop115.4
61.9Endgame50.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 30 | 47 |
| teleop | 126 | 184 |
| endgame | 83 | 61 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 239 | 307 |
Result
Final score
239 – 307
Prediction missed · off by 58.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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