FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

309.99 – 329.51

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

330 – 323

Prediction missed · off by 13.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 517.7 ±9.8

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 137.7Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 81.8Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 90.49Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.2 ±9.8

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 196.96Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 30.39Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 102.16Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5712, 288, 5843

/ 100 compat

Projected

310 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5712, 288, 5843

Auto

60.5 20%

Teleop

151.7 50%

Endgame

92.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2137, 1711, 123

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2137, 1711, 123

Auto

83.7 25%

Teleop

171.1 52%

Endgame

76.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score310pts

Blue projected score329.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.5
Score range: 246–394
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 653 vs event baseline 357.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

517.7Season APEX476.2

60.5Auto83.7

151.7Teleop171.1

92.6Endgame76

155Consistency180

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	60
teleop	164	175
endgame	101	88
foul	0	0
total	330	323

Result

Final score

330 – 323

Prediction missed · off by 13.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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