FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

364.27 – 203.07

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

395 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 606.3 ±9.3

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 147.51Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 88.25Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 128.51Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 517.7 ±9.3

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 57.73Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 59.52Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 85.82Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 548, 3452, 2851

/ 100 compat

Projected

364.3 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 548, 3452, 2851

Auto

81.4 23%

Teleop

215.0 60%

Endgame

64.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 910, 4967, 5843

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 910, 4967, 5843

Auto

50.9 25%

Teleop

100.8 49%

Endgame

54.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.91 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score364.3pts

Blue projected score203.1pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.2
Score range: 139–428
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 626 vs event baseline 356.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

606.3Season APEX517.7

81.4Auto50.9

215Teleop100.8

64.3Endgame54.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	45
teleop	206	90
endgame	120	96
foul	0	0
total	395	231

Result

Final score

395 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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