FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

322.89 – 374.34

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

471 – 474

Prediction correct · off by 123.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 653.1 ±9.3

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 151.68Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 54.51Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 116.7Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 655 ±9.3

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 76.11Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 177.08Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 121.15Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 68, 4392, 2137

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 68, 4392, 2137

Auto

56.1 17%

Teleop

189.0 58%

Endgame

78.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 894, 7166, 5086

/ 100 compat

Projected

374.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 894, 7166, 5086

Auto

54.3 14%

Teleop

180.5 48%

Endgame

140.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.94 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score322.9pts

Blue projected score374.3pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.4
Score range: 260–437
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 945 vs event baseline 350.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

653.1Season APEX655

56.1Auto54.3

189Teleop180.5

78.3Endgame140.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	118
teleop	239	240
endgame	130	116
foul	0	0
total	471	474

Result

Final score

471 – 474

Prediction correct · off by 123.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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