FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

299.65 – 311.17

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

410 – 456

Prediction correct · off by 127.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 600.7 ±9.8

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 36.68Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 126.6Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 136.37Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 716 ±8.7

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 104.9Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 126.66Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 79.61Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5675, 7056, 4391

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5675, 7056, 4391

Auto

83.9 28%

Teleop

137.9 45%

Endgame

81.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 51%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2337, 5066, 8612

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2337, 5066, 8612

Auto

82.1 26%

Teleop

190.8 61%

Endgame

39.3 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 51%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.19 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score299.7pts

Blue projected score311.2pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 51%, blue 44%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.5
Score range: 238–373
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 866 vs event baseline 344.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

600.7Season APEX716

83.9Auto82.1

137.9Teleop190.8

81.5Endgame39.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	112
teleop	225	249
endgame	104	95
foul	0	0
total	410	456

Result

Final score

410 – 456

Prediction correct · off by 127.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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