FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

321.15 – 287.62

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

258 – 428

Prediction missed · off by 101.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.9 ±10.4

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 87.92Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 95.71Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 137.52Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582 ±9.3

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 63.42Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 147.45Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 76.75Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1718, 123, 5229

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1718, 123, 5229

Auto

39.7 12%

Teleop

206.2 63%

Endgame

79.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2960, 8373, 3618

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2960, 8373, 3618

Auto

57.7 20%

Teleop

148.0 52%

Endgame

78.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score321.2pts

Blue projected score287.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.5
Score range: 226–383
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 686 vs event baseline 344.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

351.9Season APEX582

39.7Auto57.7

206.2Teleop148

79.7Endgame78.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	41
teleop	150	210
endgame	53	147
foul	0	30
total	258	428

Result

Final score

258 – 428

Prediction missed · off by 101.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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