FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

345.25 – 263.6

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

449 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 711 ±8.7

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 118.48Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 125.01Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 101.76Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388 ±10.4

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 86.14Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 55.67Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 121.79Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 33, 70, 5712

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.3 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 33, 70, 5712

Auto

44.8 13%

Teleop

195.7 56%

Endgame

106.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3322, 4956, 1481

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3322, 4956, 1481

Auto

48.3 18%

Teleop

131.8 50%

Endgame

82.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.69 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score345.3pts

Blue projected score263.6pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.6
Score range: 202–407
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 707 vs event baseline 344.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

711Season APEX388

44.8Auto48.3

195.7Teleop131.8

106.6Endgame82.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	25
teleop	241	191
endgame	120	42
foul	15	0
total	449	258

Result

Final score

449 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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