FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

226.89 – 299.42

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

420 – 370

Prediction missed · off by 131.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 667.7 ±9.3

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 73.38Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 44.42Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 109.09Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549.9 ±9.3

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 85.53Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 106.98Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 106.91Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3452, 2137, 6152

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3452, 2137, 6152

Auto

47.2 21%

Teleop

123.3 55%

Endgame

53.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8280, 548, 7054

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8280, 548, 7054

Auto

38.9 13%

Teleop

179.0 60%

Endgame

81.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.84 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score226.9pts

Blue projected score299.4pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 80%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.5
Score range: 166–360
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 790 vs event baseline 340.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

667.7Season APEX549.9

47.2Auto38.9

123.3Teleop179

53.6Endgame81.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	71
teleop	245	189
endgame	82	105
foul	5	5
total	420	370

Result

Final score

420 – 370

Prediction missed · off by 131.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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