FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

259.27 – 219.18

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

416 – 447

Prediction missed · off by 192.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 662.7 ±9.3

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 121.44Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 58.17Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 79.66Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.9 ±9.3

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 70.64Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 70Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 78.54Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 68, 894, 4391

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 68, 894, 4391

Auto

54.4 22%

Teleop

120.7 48%

Endgame

77.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 288, 5066, 2851

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 288, 5066, 2851

Auto

9.4 4%

Teleop

143.1 66%

Endgame

63.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.4 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score259.3pts

Blue projected score219.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.1
Score range: 159–319
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 863 vs event baseline 332.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

662.7Season APEX604.9

54.4Auto9.4

120.7Teleop143.1

77.8Endgame63.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	100
teleop	236	288
endgame	118	54
foul	0	5
total	416	447

Result

Final score

416 – 447

Prediction missed · off by 192.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.