Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
273.61 – 244.73
59%41%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
231 – 309
Prediction missed · off by 53.4 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.1 ±10.4
Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 94.29Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 72.58Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 106.74Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.5 ±10.4
Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 94.29Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 78.21Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 72.23Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3618, 5675, 8397
62
/ 100 compatProjected
273.6 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3618, 5675, 8397
Auto
50.3 18%
Teleop
152.2 56%
Endgame
70.9 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 71%
Supercharged: 35%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4779, 5843, 4810
53
/ 100 compatProjected
244.7 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4779, 5843, 4810
Auto
21.6 9%
Teleop
139.0 57%
Endgame
81.7 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 71%
Supercharged: 35%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.98
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score273.6pts
Blue projected score244.7pts
Red win probability59%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 71%, blue 76%
Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 38%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 28.9
- Score range
- 184–335
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
367.1Season APEX407.5
50.3Auto21.6
152.2Teleop139
70.9Endgame81.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 44 | 61 |
| teleop | 118 | 179 |
| endgame | 69 | 69 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 231 | 309 |
Result
Final score
231 – 309
Prediction missed · off by 53.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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