FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.06 – 263.79

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

509 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 146.6 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 632.6 ±9.3

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 150.67Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 87.02Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 55.37Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525.4 ±9.8

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 60.01Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 116Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 87.78Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7166, 1481, 70

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7166, 1481, 70

Auto

30.8 11%

Teleop

170.9 59%

Endgame

86.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6637, 5229, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6637, 5229, 2337

Auto

72.2 27%

Teleop

138.5 53%

Endgame

52.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score293.1pts

Blue projected score263.8pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.3
Score range: 205–352
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 850 vs event baseline 329.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

632.6Season APEX525.4

30.8Auto72.2

170.9Teleop138.5

86.3Endgame52.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	76
teleop	293	210
endgame	137	55
foul	0	0
total	509	341

Result

Final score

509 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 146.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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