FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

198.41 – 307.54

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.9 ±9.8

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 87.43Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 71.81Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 39.17Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 584.8 ±9.3

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 64.97Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 155.14Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 87.43Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2960, 4956, 4392

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2960, 4956, 4392

Auto

14.8 8%

Teleop

138.7 71%

Endgame

43.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8612, 8373, 1718

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8612, 8373, 1718

Auto

58.0 19%

Teleop

182.0 60%

Endgame

64.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.49 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score198.4pts

Blue projected score307.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.1
Score range: 137–369
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 538 vs event baseline 336.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.9Season APEX584.8

14.8Auto58

138.7Teleop182

43.1Endgame64.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	49
teleop	82	237
endgame	34	63
foul	0	0
total	189	349

Result

Final score

189 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.