FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

310.51 – 261.5

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 510.8 ±9.3

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 93.97Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 77.46Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 139.08Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 607.6 ±9.3

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 116.26Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 76.11Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 69.13Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4967, 7188, 70

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4967, 7188, 70

Auto

53.1 17%

Teleop

185.0 60%

Endgame

71.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8612, 910, 6637

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8612, 910, 6637

Auto

58.2 23%

Teleop

161.9 63%

Endgame

37.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.37 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score310.5pts

Blue projected score261.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49
Score range: 198–375
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 484 vs event baseline 357.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

510.8Season APEX607.6

53.1Auto58.2

185Teleop161.9

71.5Endgame37.4

152Consistency165

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	56
teleop	165	156
endgame	58	23
foul	0	0
total	249	235

Result

Final score

249 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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