FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

422.25 – 431.75

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

404 – 480

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 621.5 ±8.7

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 94.64Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 148.61Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 179Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 701.4 ±8.7

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 182.04Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 104.18Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 145.53Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4967, 548, 5066

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4967, 548, 5066

Auto

69.4 16%

Teleop

233.3 55%

Endgame

118.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7166, 8280, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7166, 8280, 2337

Auto

89.6 21%

Teleop

228.3 53%

Endgame

109.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.97 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score422.3pts

Blue projected score431.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.5
Score range: 358–496
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 884 vs event baseline 356.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

621.5Season APEX701.4

69.4Auto89.6

233.3Teleop228.3

118.1Endgame109.4

163Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	130
teleop	203	270
endgame	94	65
foul	0	15
total	404	480

Result

Final score

404 – 480

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 pts

Match videos

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