Final · Finals 1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
432.29 – 439.09
48%52%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
351 – 366
Prediction correct · off by 77.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 621.5 ±8.7
Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 98.2Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 151.97Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 182.12Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 701.4 ±8.7
Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 184.72Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 106.18Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 148.19Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4967, 548, 5066
77
/ 100 compatProjected
432.3 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4967, 548, 5066
Auto
70.8 16%
Teleop
240.0 56%
Endgame
120.6 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 35%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7166, 8280, 2337
80
/ 100 compatProjected
439.1 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7166, 8280, 2337
Auto
88.3 20%
Teleop
228.6 53%
Endgame
117.1 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 35%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.99 · Blue 2.02
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score432.3pts
Blue projected score439.1pts
Red win probability48%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 66%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 37%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -6.8
- Score range
- 368–503
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
621.5Season APEX701.4
70.8Auto88.3
240Teleop228.6
120.6Endgame117.1
161Consistency160
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 60 | 100 |
| teleop | 187 | 224 |
| endgame | 99 | 42 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 351 | 366 |
Result
Final score
351 – 366
Prediction correct · off by 77.2 pts
Match videos
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