Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
402.69 – 349.45
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
303 – 367
Prediction missed · off by 58.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 668.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 94.15Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 145.81Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 300Event APEX 162.73Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 631.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 134.23Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 140.08Rank 33Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 201Event APEX 75.14Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3602, 1498, 8608
77
/ 100 compatProjected
402.7 pts
~2.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3602, 1498, 8608
Auto
63.3 16%
Teleop
227.8 57%
Endgame
106.4 27%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 74%
Supercharged: 37%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2611, 201, 1076
72
/ 100 compatProjected
349.5 pts
~1.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2611, 201, 1076
Auto
77.1 22%
Teleop
181.6 52%
Endgame
90.1 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 74%
Supercharged: 37%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.45 · Blue 1.63
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score402.7pts
Blue projected score349.5pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 74%, blue 65%
Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 28%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 53.2
- Score range
- 288–464
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
668.2Season APEX631.9
63.3Auto77.1
227.8Teleop181.6
106.4Endgame90.1
170Consistency143
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 71 | 68 |
| teleop | 166 | 180 |
| endgame | 66 | 119 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 303 | 367 |
Result
Final score
303 – 367
Prediction missed · off by 58.6 pts
Match videos
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