Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
399.82 – 416.38
45%55%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
429 – 348
Prediction missed · off by 48.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 624.3 ±8.7
Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 77.72Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 173.84Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 250Event APEX 148.26Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 671.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 113.17Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 161.06Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 200Event APEX 142.15Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 862, 3414, 469
75
/ 100 compatProjected
399.8 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 862, 3414, 469
Auto
83.6 21%
Teleop
227.7 57%
Endgame
86.2 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 28%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5462, 5193, 5114
79
/ 100 compatProjected
416.4 pts
~2.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5462, 5193, 5114
Auto
85.5 21%
Teleop
227.0 56%
Endgame
94.9 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 28%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.77 · Blue 2.11
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score399.8pts
Blue projected score416.4pts
Red win probability45%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%
Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 37%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -16.6
- Score range
- 340–476
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
624.3Season APEX671.2
83.6Auto85.5
227.7Teleop227
86.2Endgame94.9
123Consistency150
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 110 | 89 |
| teleop | 212 | 145 |
| endgame | 87 | 114 |
| foul | 20 | 0 |
| total | 429 | 348 |
Result
Final score
429 – 348
Prediction missed · off by 48.8 pts
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.