FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

492.68 – 409.71

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

546 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 788.6 ±8.7

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 70.31Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 200.56Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 221.81Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 668.2 ±9.3

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 96.33Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 148.36Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 165.02Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2586, 2767, 6090

/ 100 compat

Projected

492.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2586, 2767, 6090

Auto

93.9 19%

Teleop

263.3 54%

Endgame

133.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3602, 1498, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3602, 1498, 8608

Auto

67.1 17%

Teleop

235.4 58%

Endgame

101.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.53 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score492.7pts

Blue projected score409.7pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83
Score range: 350–553
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 911 vs event baseline 334.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

788.6Season APEX668.2

93.9Auto67.1

263.3Teleop235.4

133.6Endgame101.1

154Consistency164

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	128	46
teleop	296	184
endgame	122	135
foul	0	0
total	546	365

Result

Final score

546 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 49 pts

Match videos

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