FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

308.75 – 346.58

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

345 – 363

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.5 ±9.8

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 86.94Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 121.18Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 100.63Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 631.9 ±9.3

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 133.55Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 138.41Rank 33Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 74.62Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9215, 4398, 1023

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9215, 4398, 1023

Auto

68.8 23%

Teleop

162.7 53%

Endgame

73.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2611, 201, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2611, 201, 1076

Auto

79.9 23%

Teleop

177.0 51%

Endgame

88.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score308.8pts

Blue projected score346.6pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.8
Score range: 249–407
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 708 vs event baseline 334.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.5Season APEX631.9

68.8Auto79.9

162.7Teleop177

73Endgame88.8

155Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	61
teleop	201	201
endgame	98	101
foul	0	0
total	345	363

Result

Final score

345 – 363

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.