FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

421.97 – 376.06

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

392 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 89 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 671.2 ±9.3

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 113.98Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 162.53Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 145.46Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 631.9 ±9.3

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 143.46Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 147.9Rank 33Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 84.7Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5462, 5193, 5114

/ 100 compat

Projected

422 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5462, 5193, 5114

Auto

94.3 23%

Teleop

230.7 56%

Endgame

89.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2611, 201, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2611, 201, 1076

Auto

79.2 21%

Teleop

198.2 53%

Endgame

98.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score422pts

Blue projected score376.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.9
Score range: 316–482
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 620 vs event baseline 333.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

671.2Season APEX631.9

94.3Auto79.2

230.7Teleop198.2

89.5Endgame98.7

144Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	80
teleop	210	92
endgame	119	51
foul	15	5
total	392	228

Result

Final score

392 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 89 pts

Match videos

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