FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

406.13 – 328.13

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

377 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 624.3 ±8.7

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 78.72Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 176.03Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 151.38Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500.5 ±9.8

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 93.21Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 128.71Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 106.21Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 862, 3414, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 862, 3414, 469

Auto

82.0 20%

Teleop

235.9 59%

Endgame

85.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9215, 4398, 1023

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9215, 4398, 1023

Auto

71.3 22%

Teleop

178.2 54%

Endgame

80.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score406.1pts

Blue projected score328.1pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78
Score range: 268–466
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 609 vs event baseline 333.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

624.3Season APEX500.5

82Auto71.3

235.9Teleop178.2

85.2Endgame80

116Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	62
teleop	197	102
endgame	92	43
foul	0	25
total	377	232

Result

Final score

377 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 pts

Match videos

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