FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

416.5 – 362.29

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

372 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 668.2 ±9.3

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 98.6Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 151.35Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 166.55Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 663.6 ±8.7

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 108.06Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 129.9Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 124.33Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3602, 1498, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

416.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3602, 1498, 8608

Auto

65.0 16%

Teleop

239.8 59%

Endgame

104.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3572, 7250, 1684

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3572, 7250, 1684

Auto

41.9 12%

Teleop

189.2 54%

Endgame

117.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.46 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score416.5pts

Blue projected score362.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.2
Score range: 302–477
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 698 vs event baseline 333.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

668.2Season APEX663.6

65Auto41.9

239.8Teleop189.2

104Endgame117.7

159Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	24
teleop	211	173
endgame	90	129
foul	0	0
total	372	326

Result

Final score

372 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 pts

Match videos

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