FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

500.19 – 398.39

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

457 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 788.6 ±8.7

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 73.09Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 202.47Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 224.63Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 675 ±8.7

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 137.85Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 148.13Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 112.41Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2586, 2767, 6090

/ 100 compat

Projected

500.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2586, 2767, 6090

Auto

106.7 21%

Teleop

265.5 53%

Endgame

125.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10349, 3656, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10349, 3656, 9245

Auto

86.5 22%

Teleop

210.3 53%

Endgame

102.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.62 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score500.2pts

Blue projected score398.4pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.8
Score range: 338–560
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 774 vs event baseline 332.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

788.6Season APEX675

106.7Auto86.5

265.5Teleop210.3

125.4Endgame102.9

154Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	113
teleop	248	117
endgame	170	87
foul	0	0
total	457	317

Result

Final score

457 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Match videos

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