Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
393.45 – 408.09
45%55%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
429 – 420
Prediction missed · off by 23.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 624.3 ±8.7
Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 75.52Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 171.79Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 250Event APEX 146.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 671.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 109.78Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 159.25Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 200Event APEX 139.06Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 862, 3414, 469
76
/ 100 compatProjected
393.5 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 862, 3414, 469
Auto
88.9 23%
Teleop
210.5 54%
Endgame
87.2 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 28%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5462, 5193, 5114
79
/ 100 compatProjected
408.1 pts
~2.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5462, 5193, 5114
Auto
87.4 22%
Teleop
218.5 55%
Endgame
92.9 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 28%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.78 · Blue 2.1
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score393.5pts
Blue projected score408.1pts
Red win probability45%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%
Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 37%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -14.6
- Score range
- 332–469
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Upset
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 849 vs event baseline 337.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
624.3Season APEX671.2
88.9Auto87.4
210.5Teleop218.5
87.2Endgame92.9
129Consistency160
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 101 | 62 |
| teleop | 244 | 187 |
| endgame | 69 | 166 |
| foul | 15 | 5 |
| total | 429 | 420 |
Result
Final score
429 – 420
Prediction missed · off by 23.7 pts
Match videos
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