FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

411.42 – 352.83

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

382 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 671.2 ±9.3

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 110.62Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 160.12Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 140.68Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 631.9 ±9.3

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 135.88Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 140.07Rank 33Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 76.88Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5462, 5193, 5114

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5462, 5193, 5114

Auto

85.0 21%

Teleop

219.7 55%

Endgame

96.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2611, 201, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2611, 201, 1076

Auto

75.8 22%

Teleop

182.1 52%

Endgame

94.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score411.4pts

Blue projected score352.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.6
Score range: 292–472
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 673 vs event baseline 337.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

671.2Season APEX631.9

85Auto75.8

219.7Teleop182.1

96.1Endgame94.4

157Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	62
teleop	209	161
endgame	69	68
foul	0	0
total	382	291

Result

Final score

382 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Match videos

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