FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

502.71 – 405.99

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

365 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 114.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 788.6 ±8.7

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 73.45Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 203.88Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 225.38Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 624.3 ±8.7

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 79.69Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 176.36Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 149.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2586, 2767, 6090

/ 100 compat

Projected

502.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2586, 2767, 6090

Auto

99.4 20%

Teleop

269.8 54%

Endgame

132.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 862, 3414, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

406 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 862, 3414, 469

Auto

88.2 22%

Teleop

225.8 56%

Endgame

86.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.59 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score502.7pts

Blue projected score406pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.7
Score range: 345–564
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 680 vs event baseline 336.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

788.6Season APEX624.3

99.4Auto88.2

269.8Teleop225.8

132Endgame86.6

144Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	92
teleop	172	119
endgame	114	89
foul	5	15
total	365	315

Result

Final score

365 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 114.4 pts

Match videos

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