FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

405.94 – 409.74

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

437 – 350

Prediction missed · off by 45.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 671.2 ±9.3

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 109.2Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 157.66Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 139.08Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 675 ±8.7

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 139.09Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 153.36Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 117.29Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5462, 5193, 5114

/ 100 compat

Projected

405.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5462, 5193, 5114

Auto

86.0 22%

Teleop

214.3 54%

Endgame

98.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10349, 3656, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10349, 3656, 9245

Auto

91.6 22%

Teleop

212.0 52%

Endgame

106.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score405.9pts

Blue projected score409.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.8
Score range: 345–471
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 787 vs event baseline 336.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

671.2Season APEX675

86Auto91.6

214.3Teleop212

98.1Endgame106.3

154Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	88
teleop	247	178
endgame	82	84
foul	30	0
total	437	350

Result

Final score

437 – 350

Prediction missed · off by 45.4 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.