FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

287.35 – 271.71

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

258 – 297

Prediction missed · off by 27.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610.7 ±9.3

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 117.43Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 91.71Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 78.21Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 583.8 ±9.3

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 78.86Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 91.71Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 101.14Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3414, 1684, 4855

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3414, 1684, 4855

Auto

69.8 24%

Teleop

149.3 51%

Endgame

72.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8767, 3656, 1498

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8767, 3656, 1498

Auto

56.6 21%

Teleop

154.0 57%

Endgame

59.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score287.3pts

Blue projected score271.7pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.6
Score range: 216–343
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 555 vs event baseline 312.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610.7Season APEX583.8

69.8Auto56.6

149.3Teleop154

72Endgame59.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	46
teleop	164	173
endgame	47	78
foul	0	0
total	258	297

Result

Final score

258 – 297

Prediction missed · off by 27.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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