FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

216.87 – 220.59

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

364 – 467

Prediction correct · off by 196.8 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 546.4 ±9.8

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 85.71Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 71.43Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 59.73Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 691.5 ±9.3

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 53.43Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 59.73Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 107.43Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5114, 9245, 3602

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5114, 9245, 3602

Auto

37.6 17%

Teleop

124.7 58%

Endgame

53.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5577, 7250, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5577, 7250, 8608

Auto

20.5 9%

Teleop

130.1 59%

Endgame

70.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.01 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score216.9pts

Blue projected score220.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.7
Score range: 163–275
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 831 vs event baseline 297.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

546.4Season APEX691.5

37.6Auto20.5

124.7Teleop130.1

53.2Endgame70

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	50
teleop	197	247
endgame	61	110
foul	0	60
total	364	467

Result

Final score

364 – 467

Prediction correct · off by 196.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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