FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

312.6 – 239.69

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

363 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 618 ±9.3

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 82.47Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 87.35Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 142.78Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 519.9 ±9.3

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 45.88Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 53.27Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 140.54Rank 33Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6528, 9215, 3656

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6528, 9215, 3656

Auto

55.5 18%

Teleop

168.1 54%

Endgame

85.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 302, 5982, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 302, 5982, 201

Auto

49.2 20%

Teleop

130.1 54%

Endgame

62.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.57 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score312.6pts

Blue projected score239.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.9
Score range: 180–373
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 670 vs event baseline 333.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

618Season APEX519.9

55.5Auto49.2

168.1Teleop130.1

85.5Endgame62.8

136Consistency176

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	37
teleop	181	161
endgame	94	104
foul	5	5
total	363	307

Result

Final score

363 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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