FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

307.3 – 630.02

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

321 – 452

Prediction correct · off by 95.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543 ±9.8

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 110.02Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 31.72Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 165.56Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 849.4 ±8.7

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 238.87Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 215.47Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 175.68Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5046, 8767, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5046, 8767, 8608

Auto

49.0 16%

Teleop

186.5 61%

Endgame

68.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6090, 2767, 5193

/ 100 compat

Projected

630 pts

~3.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6090, 2767, 5193

Auto

146.7 23%

Teleop

330.6 53%

Endgame

147.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.94 · Blue 3.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score307.3pts

Blue projected score630pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 52%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -322.7
Score range: 247–690
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 773 vs event baseline 332.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543Season APEX849.4

49Auto146.7

186.5Teleop330.6

68.2Endgame147.7

167Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	94
teleop	156	235
endgame	71	123
foul	20	0
total	321	452

Result

Final score

321 – 452

Prediction correct · off by 95.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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