FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

269.61 – 305.98

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

237 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437 ±9.8

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 82.45Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 101.91Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 85.25Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.2 ±9.8

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 119.89Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 62.95Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 123.14Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4855, 3602, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4855, 3602, 1076

Auto

58.1 21%

Teleop

146.4 54%

Endgame

67.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1684, 8424, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

306 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1684, 8424, 4398

Auto

56.9 19%

Teleop

146.8 49%

Endgame

98.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.7 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score269.6pts

Blue projected score306pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.4
Score range: 210–366
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 568 vs event baseline 333.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437Season APEX489.2

58.1Auto56.9

146.4Teleop146.8

67.8Endgame98.9

144Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	66
teleop	140	200
endgame	61	65
foul	0	0
total	237	331

Result

Final score

237 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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