FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

339.43 – 265.85

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

444 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 111.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 563.7 ±9.8

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 163.88Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 136.12Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 39.43Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430.6 ±8.7

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 86.75Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 80.62Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 98.48Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3414, 5114, 9255

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3414, 5114, 9255

Auto

105.2 31%

Teleop

189.8 57%

Endgame

40.4 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 862, 2586, 244

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 862, 2586, 244

Auto

22.2 8%

Teleop

163.8 62%

Endgame

80.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score339.4pts

Blue projected score265.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.6
Score range: 206–399
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 591 vs event baseline 333.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

563.7Season APEX430.6

105.2Auto22.2

189.8Teleop163.8

40.4Endgame80.2

155Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	39
teleop	250	57
endgame	76	51
foul	20	0
total	444	147

Result

Final score

444 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 111.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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