Qualification · Qualification 75
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
344.76 – 224.65
82%18%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
290 – 292
Prediction missed · off by 61.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 581.5 ±9.3
Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 154.32Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 56.06Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 134.38Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 21.15Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 69.14Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 134.36Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1498, 3767, 7250
68
/ 100 compatProjected
344.8 pts
~2.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1498, 3767, 7250
Auto
50.3 15%
Teleop
180.2 54%
Endgame
101.2 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 73%
Supercharged: 33%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7598, 9210, 2611
54
/ 100 compatProjected
224.7 pts
~1.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7598, 9210, 2611
Auto
38.5 17%
Teleop
120.5 53%
Endgame
69.1 30%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 73%
Supercharged: 33%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.71 · Blue 1.26
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score344.8pts
Blue projected score224.7pts
Red win probability82%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 73%, blue 68%
Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 20%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 120.1
- Score range
- 165–405
- Upset likelihood
- 18%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
581.5Season APEX485.7
50.3Auto38.5
180.2Teleop120.5
101.2Endgame69.1
132Consistency126
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 22 |
| teleop | 151 | 221 |
| endgame | 105 | 49 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 290 | 292 |
Result
Final score
290 – 292
Prediction missed · off by 61.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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