FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.02 – 289.22

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

205 – 315

Prediction missed · off by 59.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 514.3 ±9.3

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 63.14Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 114.23Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 120.65Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 555.8 ±9.8

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 105.21Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 108.18Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 75.83Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5982, 3572, 5462

/ 100 compat

Projected

298 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5982, 3572, 5462

Auto

20.6 7%

Teleop

156.6 53%

Endgame

119.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5046, 9245, 5577

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5046, 9245, 5577

Auto

56.0 20%

Teleop

139.3 49%

Endgame

87.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score298pts

Blue projected score289.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.8
Score range: 229–358
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 520 vs event baseline 335.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

514.3Season APEX555.8

20.6Auto56

156.6Teleop139.3

119.8Endgame87.3

150Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	68
teleop	78	205
endgame	70	42
foul	15	0
total	205	315

Result

Final score

205 – 315

Prediction missed · off by 59.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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