FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

452.97 – 391.1

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

572 – 503

Prediction correct · off by 115.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 656.1 ±9.3

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 227.12Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 113.38Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 112.47Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 641.9 ±9.3

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 94.29Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 132.22Rank 33Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 164.59Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6090, 247, 1684

/ 100 compat

Projected

453 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6090, 247, 1684

Auto

89.2 20%

Teleop

221.7 49%

Endgame

143.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3602, 201, 5193

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3602, 201, 5193

Auto

91.6 23%

Teleop

207.1 53%

Endgame

92.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.48 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score453pts

Blue projected score391.1pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.9
Score range: 331–513
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1075 vs event baseline 332.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

656.1Season APEX641.9

89.2Auto91.6

221.7Teleop207.1

143.5Endgame92.7

170Consistency192

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	114
teleop	307	265
endgame	155	119
foul	30	5
total	572	503

Result

Final score

572 – 503

Prediction correct · off by 115.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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