FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

220.53 – 436.1

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

314 – 394

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.8 ±9.8

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 55.95Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 86.63Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 77.95Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 695.7 ±9.3

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 174.19Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 171.19Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 90.72Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8424, 226, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8424, 226, 862

Auto

42.7 19%

Teleop

119.4 53%

Endgame

61.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8608, 3414, 9215

/ 100 compat

Projected

436.1 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8608, 3414, 9215

Auto

63.9 15%

Teleop

281.3 65%

Endgame

87.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.96 · Blue 3.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score220.5pts

Blue projected score436.1pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 45%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -215.6
Score range: 161–496
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 708 vs event baseline 332.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.8Season APEX695.7

42.7Auto63.9

119.4Teleop281.3

61.1Endgame87.4

119Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	94
teleop	186	173
endgame	95	127
foul	0	0
total	314	394

Result

Final score

314 – 394

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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