FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

434.94 – 424.44

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

444 – 380

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 695.2 ±8.7

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 141.31Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 81.54Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 212.09Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577 ±9.8

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 156.79Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 127.45Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 140.2Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10349, 2586, 2767

/ 100 compat

Projected

434.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10349, 2586, 2767

Auto

64.5 15%

Teleop

248.9 58%

Endgame

118.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1498, 4398, 2611

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1498, 4398, 2611

Auto

79.0 19%

Teleop

224.9 54%

Endgame

113.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.07 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score434.9pts

Blue projected score424.4pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.5
Score range: 364–495
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 824 vs event baseline 331.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

695.2Season APEX577

64.5Auto79

248.9Teleop224.9

118Endgame113.8

145Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	45
teleop	253	171
endgame	100	164
foul	0	0
total	444	380

Result

Final score

444 – 380

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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