Qualification · Qualification 70
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
262.91 – 240.92
57%43%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
213 – 259
Prediction missed · off by 34 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 88.08Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 127.14Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 47.69Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459 ±9.8
Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 52.63Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 29.95Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 250Event APEX 158.34Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4855, 5462, 9255
56
/ 100 compatProjected
262.9 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4855, 5462, 9255
Auto
29.0 11%
Teleop
136.2 52%
Endgame
96.6 37%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 29%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3767, 8767, 469
57
/ 100 compatProjected
240.9 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3767, 8767, 469
Auto
63.6 27%
Teleop
126.2 54%
Endgame
44.3 19%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 29%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.71
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score262.9pts
Blue projected score240.9pts
Red win probability57%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%
Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 19%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 22
- Score range
- 181–323
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
411.1Season APEX459
29Auto63.6
136.2Teleop126.2
96.6Endgame44.3
135Consistency127
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 36 | 69 |
| teleop | 137 | 146 |
| endgame | 40 | 44 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 213 | 259 |
Result
Final score
213 – 259
Prediction missed · off by 34 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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