FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.99 – 174.85

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

340 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 120.6 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 708.2 ±8.7

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX -Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX -Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 76.57Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.7 ±9.3

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 75.43Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX -Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX -Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 469, 7598, 6090

/ 100 compat

Projected

176 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 469, 7598, 6090

Auto

53.5 30%

Teleop

87.1 50%

Endgame

35.3 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5046, 302, 2586

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5046, 302, 2586

Auto

39.0 22%

Teleop

95.1 54%

Endgame

40.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score176pts

Blue projected score174.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.1
Score range: 121–230
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 592 vs event baseline 298.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

708.2Season APEX540.7

23.7Auto9.1

37.4Teleop45.4

15.4Endgame20.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	39
teleop	169	128
endgame	57	85
foul	0	0
total	340	252

Result

Final score

340 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 120.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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