FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

217.19 – 291.85

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

328 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 88.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610.3 ±8.7

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 12.15Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 105.72Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 99.32Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.5 ±9.3

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 94.9Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 118.4Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 78.55Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7598, 3572, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7598, 3572, 9245

Auto

51.9 24%

Teleop

93.3 43%

Endgame

71.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1076, 1023, 9210

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1076, 1023, 9210

Auto

78.8 27%

Teleop

172.0 58%

Endgame

43.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.49 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score217.2pts

Blue projected score291.9pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.7
Score range: 157–352
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 553 vs event baseline 333.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610.3Season APEX571.5

51.9Auto78.8

93.3Teleop172

71.2Endgame43.9

135Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	60
teleop	167	70
endgame	86	95
foul	5	0
total	328	225

Result

Final score

328 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 88.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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