FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

326.27 – 247.19

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

275 – 302

Prediction missed · off by 53 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 526.4 ±9.3

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 102.01Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 79.22Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 145.04Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637.5 ±8.7

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 130.42Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 78.96Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 37.81Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 244, 5577, 3656

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 244, 5577, 3656

Auto

43.1 13%

Teleop

182.0 57%

Endgame

94.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7250, 6528, 302

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7250, 6528, 302

Auto

34.2 14%

Teleop

151.3 64%

Endgame

51.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.48 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score326.3pts

Blue projected score247.2pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.1
Score range: 187–386
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 577 vs event baseline 334.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

526.4Season APEX637.5

43.1Auto34.2

182Teleop151.3

94.6Endgame51.4

120Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	33
teleop	173	164
endgame	58	80
foul	5	25
total	275	302

Result

Final score

275 – 302

Prediction missed · off by 53 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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