FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

303.09 – 402.25

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

256 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 499 ±9.8

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 87.31Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 90.81Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 124.97Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.6 ±9.8

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 166.15Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 96.78Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 139.32Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2586, 226, 5535

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2586, 226, 5535

Auto

54.9 18%

Teleop

168.2 55%

Endgame

80.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5193, 9215, 5114

/ 100 compat

Projected

402.3 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5193, 9215, 5114

Auto

92.5 23%

Teleop

234.9 59%

Endgame

68.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.42 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score303.1pts

Blue projected score402.3pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.2
Score range: 243–462
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 621 vs event baseline 334.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

499Season APEX604.6

54.9Auto92.5

168.2Teleop234.9

80.1Endgame68.6

129Consistency171

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	111
teleop	144	167
endgame	69	87
foul	5	0
total	256	365

Result

Final score

256 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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